COMMENTARY | There is something definitely Romney-phobic about the Republican electorate. In fact, Mitt Romney has been challenged in the polls by every candidate (except former Utah governor Jon Huntsman), including undeclared contenders like businessman Donald Trump. But Romney won the Iowa Caucus, so how long before the focus of the Republican race shifts from being anti- or not-Romney to being simply not-Obama?
It could be longer than one might normally think, given that former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum lost the recently completed Iowa Caucus by a mere eight votes. But a report from the Associated Press the day before the ABC News New Hampshire presidential debate notes that conservative leaders are sounding out the idea that they need to select a candidate that isn't Mitt Romney, before Romney has a lock on the Republican nomination.
The problem: Those same conservative leaders cannot decide on which candidate to back. New Hampshire looks to be heavily favoring Romney, so the former Massachusetts governor could have two wins under his belt heading into the South Carolina primary. And momentum can be a tough force to impede, especially if or when voters feel a certain inevitability might be creeping in.
In the latest head-to-head presidential election match-up poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Romney and Obama are tied at 42 percent support. No other Republican candidate comes close to beating Obama.
But who to back? Texas governor Perry, who finished fifth in the Iowa Caucus (via CNN) with 10 percent of the vote? Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who finished fourth with 13 percent? How about surging Rick Santorum, who pulled 25 percent of the vote, nearly winning it all?
And where to concentrate their support once a decision is made? South Carolina, with its deeply blue-collar, evangelical electorate, where the last two polls (via Real Clear Politics ) have indicated that Gingrich held a double-digit lead (albeit two weeks before the Iowa Caucus)? Or Florida, where Romney and Gingrich are neck-and-neck, according to the last poll (from TelOpinion)?
Still, Gingrich fell in Iowa to negative ads and oppositional research. And Perry fell a while back, a victim of his own mouth. Santorum has the momentum at present, but it is questionable that the momentum is sustainable. Can he ultimately be the not-Romney that is an electable not-Obama?
And that is the ultimate qualifier: Will the eventual nominee be able to garner enough not-Obama support to win in November?
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